http://harvard-sf.blogspot.com/2007/12/two-months-ago-super-duper-tuesday.html
For poll results announced tonight, see below. Is the "inevitable"
Democratic campaign train derailed? Best,
Perry
* * *
"Sen. Barack Obama speaks to voters during a campaign stop in
Manchester, New Hampshire.
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
PELHAM, N.H. — Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton
and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat among New Hampshire voters
in a statewide USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, underscoring the volatility of
the race less than three weeks before the nation's first primary.
Among Republicans, Mitt Romney's lead has narrowed to single digits
over John McCain, who hopes to repeat the victory here that ignited
his presidential campaign in 2000.
STILL UNDECIDED: Voters' questions increase
POLL RESULTS: Romney's lead shrinks
The survey's fundamental finding is uncertainty: More than four of 10
voters in each party say they may change their minds before the Jan. 8
primary. That fluidity could magnify the impact of late-breaking news,
last-minute gaffes and the Iowa caucuses that will open the
presidential season five days earlier.
"People are just taking a hard look at this point," says Jim Hardy,
sheriff of Hillsborough County and a McCain supporter who is greeting
voters at a campaign town hall with the Arizona senator at Pelham High
School on Wednesday night.
FIND MORE STORIES IN: Republicans | Democrat | John Mccain | Hillary
Rodham Clinton | Barack Obama | New Hampshire | Poll | Mitt Romney |
Romney | Brian Snyder
At a rally in Keene for Democrat John Edwards, Linda Rockwell and her
husband, Robin, say they are "leaning" toward Edwards but also
considering Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Independents
can vote in either party's primary. "I don't really decide until a
couple of days before," she says.
In the poll, Clinton and Obama are tied at 32%-32%, with Edwards at
18%. No other candidate breaks into double digits.
Counting only those who say their vote is certain, Clinton narrowly
leads Obama, 20%-18%. Edwards is backed by 10%.
In the Republican race, Romney leads McCain, 34%-27%. Including only
those whose votes are set, Romney's lead narrows to 19%-15%, within
the survey's margin of error of +/— 5 points.
Effectively tied for third place are former New York mayor Rudy
Giuliani, at 11%, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Texas
Rep. Ron Paul, each at 9%.
Just last month, most Granite State surveys showed Clinton and Romney
with double-digit leads. Now, Clinton's "firewall" against a possible
setback in Iowa has weakened. Of eight statewide polls taken by other
news organizations during the past two weeks, Clinton has led in six,
Obama in two, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
In the GOP, a lead for Romney that averaged 16 percentage points at
the beginning of December has been cut to 7 points.
The USA TODAY poll, taken Monday through Wednesday, finds voters
assessing the contenders as having distinctive strengths:
•Republicans view Romney as someone who shares their values, has new
ideas to solve the country's problems and has the best chance of
winning in November. McCain ranks first as someone who is in touch
with average Americans, stands up for what he believes and can get
things done in Washington.
•Democrats view Clinton as the candidate who knows how to get things
done and is most likely to win the general election. But the New York
senator ranks third, behind Illinois Sen. Obama and former North
Carolina senator Edwards, as someone who offers new ideas and is "in
touch with the average American."
Obama is seen as most likely to share voters' values and be willing to
stand up for what he believes."